Daily Forex Analysis and Predictions for Aug 31, 2009

Salam hijau all trader
trick dapet profit adalah :
1. jangan op bila tidak punya prediksi
2. jangan serakah
3. jangan mudah emosi
4. ikuti prediksi team GS dgn benar dan tepat waktu
5. selalu pasang TP dan SL disetiap OP
6. selalu ikuti perkembangan beritanya.
7. dll siapa yang mau nambah silahkan………

8.Kalo untung jangan lupa zakat

9 ihklas

buy usd gdp 1.6181

SELL GDP USD 1.6350

Om GS,

utk GU lebih baik OP siang nanti ato skrg ?? soalnya kalo ngeliat trendnya kayaknya belum stabil ..

mohon penjelasannya …

Bung GS, untuk EU bisa open buy sekarang ?

haloo baskoro solo ya gmn kabar

Pagi GS,
Jadi hari ini prefer BUY ya..kalo skrg op buy bisa ga?tp 25 sl75

pagi mas,,mas GS sendiri dah OP belum??di pair apa??

oke trims gs…………saya akan op untuk gu jam 1 siang

saya sell di 1.6275 sama 1.6258 TP 1.6260 SL 1.6315

Bung yoga….mohon pencerahan untuk OP nya….masuknya kapan ??

tapi khok gurunya sendiri tidak trade hari ini ya…………jadi biar jam satu aku jadi ragu juga…. lha prediksi hari ini berdasar berita kapan pak gs…….atau akurasinya berapa persen untuk prediksi hari ini tgl. 31 agust 2009………..agar kita dapat profitfull.

Emang mendingan hari ini kita libur dulu aja menikmati profit yang kemarin dah kita dapet. Hari ini kan untuk GU ama EU gak ada berita penting. Tapi gak tau kl nnt siang ada rumor yg bisa nggerakan GU ma EU. Kl aq sih dah OP Sell GU di 1.2281 SL 30 aku kasih trailing stop 45

Analisa dari gainsope sangat hebat !!

Sterling masih berada dalam tekanan Dollar AS terkait dengan adanya sedikit penurunan kinerja pada sektor riil, dimana rata-rata harga perumahan Inggris masih menurun sekitar 7.7 % (annual) sampai pada bulan Juli ini, meskipun penghitungan secara bulanan menunjukkan sedikit kenaikan yaitu 0.1%. Kenaikan ini merupakan kenaikan pertama di Inggris dalam 25 bulan terakhir.

Perekonomian Inggris secara umum masih rentan dimana negara tersebut tengah mengupayakan reformasi pada sektor keuangan, dengan meningkatkan pengawasan terhadap para bankir.

Range perdagangan normal hari ini diperkirakan berkisar antara 1.6225 – 1.6352 dan dalam hal pergerakan turun lebih rendah dari 1.6217 terdapat potensi untuk terjadi penguatan Dollar AS selanjutnya. Sedangkan jika harga dapat naik melewati kisaran 1.6294 maka berpotensi untuk terjadi pelemahan Dollar AS. Pola reversal dan kemungkinan terjadinya rebound masih terbuka pada perdagangan hari ini.

bung Dawi,

skrg posisi GU di 1.6193 , kalo menurut prediksi bung kan diperkirakan akan terjadi penguatan Dollar AS , apa maksudnya chart di GU akan menunjukkan trend bearish ??

mohon penjelasannya, newbie 🙂

Bung GS, bukankah hari ini di Inggris, libur Summer bank holiday?

gimana? uda bisa trade skrg??

A note on end of summer conditions

Next week sees both month-end and a likely end to summertime trading conditions, both of which have the potential to generate heightened volatility. On Monday, Japanese election results (see below) will start the ball rolling, but liquidity will be hampered midday by the UK Summer Bank holiday which will see most of London absent. NY afternoons will likely remain thin as the US Labor Day holiday on Monday Sept. 7 leads to thinner interest than normal toward the end of the week. At the same time, summer will be ending for many asset managers and an increase in position adjustments may begin from Sept.1. Lastly, Friday will see the August US NFP report, always an important catalyst for volatility.

Is this as good as it gets?

As summer draws to a close, indications are increasing that the risk rebound has run its course and that markets are likely entering a more difficult phase of the global stabilisation/recovery story. On the technical side, in stocks, bearish divergences between price and momentum abound in major indexes like the S&P 500, FTSE, and the MSCI World. In currencies, the ‘risk on’ trade, long carry trades (e.g. long AUD/JPY, CAD/JPY, or EUR/JPY) and short USD, is also faltering and never corroborated the newest highs in stocks, which importantly came on weak volume.

On the fundamental side, upbeat economic data is increasingly being shrugged off, a la buy the rumor, sell the fact. August German IFO and Eurozone PMI’s just made new highs for the year, but there was a palpable lack of response from European investors. Similarly, US consumer confidence for August just surprised with a stronger than expected reading, but shares were unable to sustain gains on the day. The same goes for August US housing data, which arguably provided the best case yet that the US housing market has reached a bottom. It could be a simple case of summertime lethargy, but more likely risk positioning has reached an apex and investors willing to pile in at current levels are increasingly scarce.

Perhaps nowhere is the divergence more apparent than in commodities, which might be seen as the closest barometer of growth expectations. If production is going to ramp up and personal consumption is expected to recover, commodities should be gaining ground. But the Reuters/Jeffries CRB index peaked on Aug. 6, posting another bearish divergence between price/momentum relative to its June 11 high, and has been declining since then. There’s a built in circuit-breaker of sorts between commodity prices and other risk assets on either of two counts: 1) Higher commodity prices lead to higher final product prices, sapping disposable income and damping a consumer-led recovery, undermining corporate profitability; 2) If producers choose to eat higher input prices, corporate profits typically suffer and stock markets tend to underperform.

The greatest near-term risk emanates from China, which has recently announced efforts to rein in lending by state-owned banks to companies and to cut back on industrial production investment. Keep in mind, China and the rest of Asia were supposed to lead the rest of the world toward recovery. But with China’s nearly $600 bln fiscal stimulus package exhausted earlier this summer, that source of further growth also looks to be fading. Interestingly, last week the July China Leading index gained to 103.24, just shy of highs of 103.96 seen in mid-2007 when global growth was at its peak. Does anyone seriously think the global economy is anywhere near to mid-2007 levels? In contrast, the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of commodity shipping demand, has been sliding lower since June and never recovered to anywhere near 2007 levels. The divergence between the two, which had been closely correlated until earlier this year, is striking and suggests potential for a significant cut-back in Chinese production, which would undermine global asset markets overall. If so, buckle up for a bumpy autumn and a relapse in risky assets. In FX, we will look to sell commodity currencies (AUD, CAD, and NZD) near to highs for the year in anticipation of weaker commodity demand going forward and an expected fresh erosion in risk appetites generally.

Japanese election this weekend

Japan will hold elections to the lower house of parliament (the Diet) on Sunday, August 30. Results will likely be known around noon on Sunday EDT/late afternoon Sunday GMT, but perhaps sooner if a strong trend develops. The most recent polls suggest that the DPJ (Democratic Party of Japan) may succeed in ousting the dominant ruling LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) from power for the first time since 1955, with one brief exception in 1993. The DPJ has been leading all along as popular discontent with the LDP and PM Aso simmers amid rising unemployment and a stagnant economy. Japanese stocks have advanced on the prospect for a DPJ victory, as its platform calls for enhanced consumer support and increased domestic spending. Japanese bonds have declined/yields have gained as increased DPJ fiscal spending is expected to lead to more borrowing and more JGB issuance, though the DPJ has indicated it would not necessarily borrow to fund its initiatives. The JPY has strengthened largely on the basis of higher yields, but is also likely supported by wavering risk sentiment.

We think a DPJ victory is largely priced-in to markets, and if so, the impact has been pretty minimal indeed. This raises the prospect of a ‘buy the rumor, sell the fact’ reaction, potentially leading to lower stocks, higher bonds and a marginally weaker JPY on a DPJ win. However, with 30% of respondents indicating ‘undecided’ in some recent polls, a surprise LDP victory may yet emerge, which could hurt stocks even more, resulting in further JPY strength. Overall, we think USD/JPY is likely to stay within 92/95 in the immediate aftermath of the election. We prefer to be buyers of USD/JPY on weakness in the 92.00/93.50 area on the basis that any resulting government will maintain the policy of limiting JPY strength. We will post an update on the election results and early market reaction on Sunday afternoon by 1600EDT/2000GMT; check The Week Ahead on the trading platform to see the update.

Details will matter in ECB and RBA rate meetings

The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to meet on rates this upcoming Tuesday and the market is unanimous looking for no change to the 3.0% target. Given that steady rates are pretty well baked in the cake, traders will be focused on the press statement. The bank is likely to note that economic conditions continue to improve as evidenced by that much better than expected employment number for July, which actually showed an addition of 32.2K while the market was forecasting another monthly decline. The key things to watch are whether the RBA discusses the Australian dollar strength and whether they hint that they will likely be one of the first central banks to raise rates. Rumors were a dime a dozen that the bank has been selling AUD in the past few months in an attempt to stem its gains, which hurt its export-oriented economy. Any hint that they are willing to intervene in the currency market further would be decidedly AUD negative. Should the committee focus instead on a timeline for rate hikes, AUD could see gains extend. Being one of the first to raise rates would give the market more confidence in the Australian economy and offer a nod to the bank’s inflation fighting credentials – both positive for the currency.

The European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Thursday and every strategist/economist surveyed is expecting no change to the current 1.0% rate. The focus will once again be on the press conference headed up by ECB President Trichet. He is likely to focus on the better economic outlook especially as indicated by major improvements in business and consumer confidence surveys of late. That jump to 95.0 in German IFO expectations in August from 90.4 the prior month did not go unnoticed. A rosier outlook for the eurozone is likely to get the EUR bulls revved up at least initially. The big question is whether Trichet will offer any details on potentially extending the ECB’s covered bond purchase program. Comments coming out of the political arm of the eurozone have been focused on the lack of lending to businesses of late and we will see whether Trichet offers any insight on potentially increasing the current 60 billion euro bond purchase program to aid with this dilemma. Should the bank hint at expanding this program, EUR would undoubtedly take a spill. This would suggest that the eurozone credit space is perhaps in more trouble than most think and puts the economic recovery in peril.

Key data and events to watch next week

The US economic calendar is jam-packed with data. The Chicago PMI kicks off the action on Monday while Tuesday has ISM manufacturing, construction spending, pending home sales and motor vehicle sales on tap. Wednesday is also busy with the ADP employment report, factory orders, crude oil inventories and the minutes of the August FOMC meeting. ISM services highlight Thursday while Friday rounds out the week with the all-important August employment report.

It is also busy in the eurozone. Monday starts things off with the consumer price estimate. On Tuesday we see eurozone PMI manufacturing, eurozone employment, German retail sales and German employment. Wednesday brings eurozone GDP and eurozone producer prices while Thursday has eurozone PMI services, eurozone retail sales and the ECB rate meeting (more on this above). The European Commission releases its economic forecasts on Friday.

The UK sees a pretty typical week in terms of data. The Hometrack housing survey starts off the action on Sunday. Tuesday is the busiest day with net consumer credit, mortgage approvals and PMI manufacturing. The PMI services index closes out the week on Thursday.

The week in Japan starts early as the election results are expected Sunday (more on this above) along with PMI manufacturing, industrial production and retail sales. Housing starts are up on Monday while Thursday sees capital expenditures.

Canada has a characteristically light but important week ahead. GDP data is scheduled for Monday while Friday has the employment report and Ivey purchasing managers index on deck.

Most of the action down under is in Australia. New home sales are up Monday while Tuesday brings the current account, building approvals and the RBA rate meeting (more above). Tuesday has GDP and the performance of services index lined up while Thursday sees the trade balance. In New Zealand, only the business confidence indicator on Monday is noteworthy.

Siang Trader
salam profit,,
hari ini cukup sulit juga prediksinya,
indikator lines masih menunjukan ke arah sell ( lemah )di TF M30, kemudian di TF H4 menunjukan arah sell ( lemah )di prediksikan kemungkinan harga turun tidak akan lebih dari 1.6025 (indikator Grafik Market ),kecuali ada berita penting.
ini cuma analisa saja.

bos, tolong setting donk bagian code programing yg dekat tulisan “failed to add your comment”.. supaya bisa menerima firex fox 3.5.2
karena system mozila terbaru ini sangat beda jauh dengan sebelumnya.. kalau versi 3.0 dgn sebelumnya mgkn masih sama, tapi yg 3.5.2 beda…
thx..

buat google chroome juga bos.
failed to add your comment.
tapi comment tetep muncul sih setelah refresh page.
ty.

bung gs
kenapa di setiap hr senin jumat
di katakan hari keramat atau
hari berbahaya utk tradin

lumayan 133 poin 🙂

Senin tak terbukti sebagai hari keramat, nih buktinya 133 poin lho, Selamat Bung herry halim

terima kasih 🙂

Siang rekan trader…

Hari ini pergerakan harga terlihat lebih sulit diprediksi, namun kemungkinan besar GU akan turun hingga 1.6097 setelah itu akan UP ke level 1.6220 an.

Rekomendasi OP :

SELL GU di 1.6240 TP 1.6097 SL 1.6365

SELL EU di 1.4280 TP 1. 4090 SL 1.4360

Maaf terlambat di posting, krn kehabisan baterai.

(Jadikan ini sebagai second opinion, trust your trading system)

Wah, Pak Yoga knp sampe bisa lowbat?
Ketika Pak Yoga posting, harga sudah menyentuh apa yg Pak Yoga sarankan…Hehehehe…

Anyway, thx Pak atas masukannya selama ini.

Salam profit…

Ketika akan di posting harga GU masih di 1.6255 dan harga EU di 1.4289.

bukannya akan naik pak yoga ..??

Wahhh…tp kok di indi gw menunjukkan konfirm sell buat GU ya
GJ juga…dan sepertinya bakal back to bottom lagi

alhamdulillah dapet 18 poin , lumayan lah … untung pake lot agak gedean …

OK, skrg siap2 OP lagi … melotot mode ON 🙂

apa GU akan naik,.. saran nya para trader…

Sore rekan trader….

Cara sederhana untuk mendapatkan profit di forex dgn System Trading yg memberikan peluang profit lebih besar dr pada loss.

1. 4 HOUR MACD PROFIT 95%

4 Hour MACD Forex Trading System merupakan trading system yang berdasarkan dari indikator MACD standard pada time frame 4 jam.

Begini caranya: pastikan anda di timeframe 4 jam dan setting MACD standard tanpa harus dirubah lagi. Definisi BUY ketika bar dari MACD lebih tinggi nilainya daripada bar sebelumnya dan SELL ketika bar MACD lebih rendah nilainya daripada bar sebelumnya. Ingat garis tengah selalu bernilai 0 dan Bar bisa positif dan bisa negatif.

Definisi Bar lebih tinggi adalah ketika nilai bar tersebut lebih positif daripada nilai bar sebelumnya misalkan bar yang mengarah kebawah, bar pertama bernilai -2 dan bar kedua bernilai -1 maka bar kedua bernilai lebih positif atau lebih tinggi daripada bar pertama, walaupun jika dilihat di chart bar pertama lebih panjang dari pada bar kedua. Definisi Bar lebih rendah jika bar lebih kecil nilainya daripada bar sebelumnya.

Mohon agar ini tidak dijadikan pertimbangan utama, jika memang Anda percaya diri dengan trading menggunakan indikator, silakan dilanjutkan sepanjang menghasilkan profit yang konsisten walaupun kecil.

2. 1 HOUR INTRADAY TRADING SYSTEM

Ok, pastikan anda membuka chart H1 di EUR/USD atau GPBUSD, siapin garis 14 EMA, dan 20 SMA. Kemudian lakukan BUY dengan syarat : garis 14 EMA berada diatas grs 20 SMA dan SELL bila garis 14 EMA berada dibawah garis 20 SMA secara bersamaan di semua chart baik M1, M5, M15, M30 dan H1.

Silakan coba sendiri trading system tsbt, namun menurut pendapat saya trading system ini patut dan layak dicoba, antara profit dan loss lebih banyak profitnya. Untuk menghindari loss yang tidak perlu bisa diperbesar SL nya.

kayaknya GU berat mau mendaki nechhhhh,,,,,
dari pagi sinyal bola dan sinyal panah buat indicator sell dan buy gak muncul2,,
sinyal lines masih mengarah ke sell teruss,,,

Pak Panjul, anda pakai indicator apa kok banyak banget sinyalnya? tolong share dunk

Met Malam bung Zoolc,,
saya pake indicator ADX dan Stoc kemudian saya padukan dengan software kusus,,jika sinyal bulat muncul di bawah warna hijau kemungkinan berpotensi buy, setelah berganti candle muncul panah potensi untuk naik/buy sudah diatas 60% kemudian diikuti sinyal line berganti warna dan kedua sinyal ( panah dan Bulat ) menyatu insya allah minimal 100 pips nyangkut profit. begitu juga kalau sell, sinyalx di atas.

contohnya ini bung Zoolc,
pada pukul 13.30 waktu market muncul sinyal bulat di bawah dengan posisi harga 1.6205 dalam satu candle harga naik sampai di 1.6231, waktu pindah candle terjadi koreksi sell tapi sinyal bulat tetap ada berarti masih berpotensi kuat untuk naik/buy, setelah ganti candle lagi di jam 16.30 waktu market muncul sinyal panah di posisi harga 1.6220, di saat yg bersamaan sinyal lines sudah berubah warna menjadi hijau ( buy )akhirnya GU terbang ke 1.6295 pada pukul 17.00 waktu market

senin dan jumat dinyatakan sebagai hari sakral 🙂 sering terjadi hal2 yg tdk masuk akal, menurut saya jikalau memang sering terjadi itu hal, maka cara kita berpikir juga harus di rubah menjadi tdk masuk akal :),

akhir bulan agustus ini…gu pada posisi 16200…….untuk trend bulan depan tetap trend turun……

GS ada yang aku mau tanyain nih mengenai perbandingan modal dengan open lot termasuk leverage, type account dalam mengunakan robot Gainscope….

bisa diberikan perbandingannya supaya tahu kapan amannya dalam open lot in robo gainscope…??? Thx….

Prediksi Gainscope luar biasa..
GU, EU gw profit semua.. hebat
Thanks Gainscope !

Hari ini prediksinya Luarrr Biasa..
Sayang saya tak lanjut, karena memang 35pips menurut saya sudah cukup..
Salut buat Mr GS.. Thanks alot Pak..

Malam Bung GS, Terima kasih atas prediksiya, profit 50 point
HEBAT ….

Yeee…Yeee…Yeee…

PREDISINYA GS&eur MANTAP SEKALI THANX GS jam 10malam.

prediksi om gs utk eu 95% tepat. hebat

menurut perkiraan saya ini hari masih tetap sama format mainya SELL 1.6277 SL 1.6327 TP 1.6180