Daily Forex Analysis and Predictions for July 29, 2009

Ada bom meledak di Spanyol yang melemahkan Euro : (berita dari Dow Jones)

Knee-jerk selling on a reported car bomb blast in Spain added to the euro’s weak tone against the yen in Asia Wednesday, as the European currency also was weighed down by a coming euro-denominated bond redemption.

The euro fell to Y133.39 from Y133.75 and to $1.4160 from $1.4180 after several Spanish newspapers reported an explosion in the northern city of Burgos causing several casualties.

Traders said euro selling on those reports would likely be short-lived, and sparked by speculators. But the unit will likely remain on a weak tone for now due to the planned euro-denominated bonds redemption Thursday, said Yuji Saito, head of foreign exchange at Societe Generale.

“The redemption would cause some euro-selling against the yen, which would weigh on investors’ sentiment,” he said.

About EUR18 billion worth of Spanish bonds will be redeemed, he noted.

Australian and New Zealand players were seen selling the euro, probably to adjust their euro holdings ahead of the redemption, some players said.

The dollar, meanwhile, fell against the yen because the worse-than-expected result of the U.S. two-year Treasurys auction overnight increased player concern about the nation’s fiscal health.

“The auction result was weaker than we had expected, and that made us think that scheduled auctions on Wednesday and Thursday may end similarly,” said Yuichiro Harada, a senior dealer at Mizuho Corporate Bank.

In the auction, the indirect bid, a closely watched category because it includes foreign buyers, fell to 33% from 69% in the June auction, the U.S. Treasury Department said.

It plans to sell $39 billion in five-year notes on Wednesday and $28 billion in seven-year notes on Thursday. The amounts will be the largest on record.

“Investors are keeping a close eye on the coming auction results, so it’s difficult for them to buy dollars actively now,” said Shinichi Hayashi, a senior dealer at Shinkin Central Bank.

Untuk G/U efeknya di penguatan USD tsb, yang bekerjasama dengan China

E/U bisa turunnya lebih tajam, karena 2 beritanya tidak mendukung Euro tsb

G/U turun.

kalau USD menguat maka G/U akan turun, demikian pula E/U juga akan turun

Karena adanya 2 berita yang menguatkan USD dan melemahkan Euro, maka Sell di E/U dan G/U sudah benar.

Kami pribadi juga sedang floating profit di G/U +40 point

dan kalau sudah close, jangan OP lagi.
Bisa istirahat dan lanjut di analisa besok lagi

Bagi yang tidak ingin ketinggalan update prediksinya, maka Harap daftarkan email anda di http://www.gainscope.com/newsletter.php , agar bisa selalu menerima updatenya ya

Ok, selamat berprofit ria
(Kalau terlambat masuk, jangan OP, sebaiknya ditunda dahulu besok ya)

Salam Sukses

GainScope.com

ikuti saja prediksinya ya

dan kalau sudah profit, jangan OP lagi, tunggu analisa besok lagi ok

ya, sepertinya begitu, sesuai dengan prediksinya

tapi kami pribadi tidak OP lagi, karena telah close Profit di Sell tadi

🙂
Iya, harus control Risk Management dan Psikologisnya

Ok, salam sukses ya

hari ini profitnya sudah cukup, besok lanjut lagi ya

kalau buruk bisa turun, mungkin sebentar lagi

Kalau berita jelek maka bisa sell di mata uang tsb
ini tadi ada berita German CPI jelek, jadi EUR/USD bisa turun lagi

German consumer prices are likely to have fallen on the year for the first time in over 20 years in July, based on data published Wednesday by four of the country’s largest federal states.

The data may usher in what European Central Bank officials expect to be a brief period of deflation across the euro zone in general.

They also appear to reflect a sharper drop in prices in July than expected by the market. Analysts polled by Dow Jones had expected prices to have risen by 0.1% on the month, and to have fallen 0.3% from a year earlier.

In North Rhine Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state and its largest in terms of gross domestic product, prices fell in July by 0.2% from June and by 0.7% from a year earlier.

The states of Saxony and Brandenburg reported that consumer prices fell 0.6% from a year earlier in July, and were unchanged on the month. The western German state of Hesse, meanwhile, reported a 0.2% drop in prices from June, and a 0.9% decline from July 2008.

A preliminary figure for Germany will be published later in the day after two other large western German states report.

For Saxony and Brandenburg, the 0.6% annual drop in prices was the lowest reading on record since they joined the Federal Republic. For Hesse, the 0.9% decline was the lowest since January 1987 and the third lowest reading in over 40 years of inflation data.

All four state statistics offices pointed to the sharp drop in energy prices over the last year as being chiefly responsible. Crude oil prices had peaked at over $147 a barrel in the summer of 2008, and have more than halved since then.

The ECB has said it expects consumer prices across the euro zone to fall for a few months in the second half of 2009, but for inflation to return to the bank’s targeted level of “close to, but below 2%” in the medium term.

Web sites: http://www.statistik.sachsen.de ; http://www.statistik-berlin-brandenburg.de ; http://www.statistik-hessen.de

Total consumer lending eased again in June and posted the lowest increase since records began in April 1993, data from the Bank of England showed Wednesday.

Total consumer lending grew just GBP414 million in June compared with a revised GBP485 million in May.

The data are much weaker than expected as economists surveyed last week by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a gain of GBP0.9 billion.

The BOE originally reported consumer lending grew GBP624 million in May.

The further slowdown was driven by an unexpected easing of consumer credit – the recent run of firmer retail sales data were thought to be indicative of a rise in credit card spending – while mortgage lending remained close to the record low reported in May.

Consumer credit grew GBP71 million in June compared with a GBP153 million gain in May. And, mortgage lending grew GBP343 million in June compared with May’s record low gain of GBP331 million.

Both the May rises for consumer credit and mortgage lending were revised from the BOE’s previously reported gains of GBP300 million for consumer credit and GBP324 million for mortgage lending.

The data were again much weaker than economists forecasts for a GBP300 million rise in consumer credit and a GBP600 million mortgage lending increase.

While lending levels remain subdued – U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling met with banks Monday to discuss the weak levels – mortgage approvals rose for the fifth straight month in June to a 14-month high of 47,584.

That compares with May’s upwardly revised 44,169 and suggests the housing market is continuing its slow but steady climb from the steep drops in prices and activity seen throughout 2008.

The increase was broadly inline with economists expectations for 47,000.

The BOE originally reported mortgage approvals totaled 43,414 in May.

Web site: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/

ok semuanya, kami akan pamit pergi sebentar, nanti kalau sempat akan kembali lagi.

Bagi yang sudah profit tadi, jangan OP lagi ya. Ingat control Risk Managementnya ya
(kami pribadi tidak OP lagi , karena sudah profit di tadi siang. Sekarang istirahat dahulu)

Salam Sukses

GainScope.com

LONDON (Dow Jones)–Optimism over the global recovery took a knock Wednesday, sending the dollar and the yen higher in Europe.

A sharp fall in Chinese stocks contributed to the negative mood as the market waits to see if U.S. data later in the day only make matters worse.

The downturn in sentiment started Tuesday as global equity markets started to top out after a recent strong rally and then the U.S. consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board showed a steeper-than-expected decline.

The July index came in at 46.6 instead of the 48.2 that had been expected. the June index was at 49.3.

These data essentially negated other figures showing that U.S. house prices rose 0.5% in May, their first increase in three years.

The market mood also wasn’t helped by comments from San Francisco Federal Reserve Governor Janet Yellen that the recovery will be “painfully slow,” as well as the poor results of the last two-year Treasury auction. These showed that demand from foreign central banks had fallen sharply, with the takeup down at only 33% this time around compared with 69% in June.

The market is now focusing on the five-year auction later Wednesday to see if the takeup improves at all.

U.S. durable goods figures are also likely to feature, especially if they continue to show a decline in demand as suggested by the confidence data. Durable goods orders are expected to have fallen 0.5% last month after a 1.8% rise in May.

Although Japanese stocks appeared to have shrugged off the more negative news, with the Nikkei ending 0.3% higher on the day, there was a different story in China.

Despite a very successful initial public offering by China State Construction Engineering Corp., which sent the share price rocketing 70%, the Shanghai Composite Index lost a hefty 7.4% on the day as the market appeared to take talk of a possible tightening in monetary policy as an excuse to take profits on the 70% surge the market has seen this year.

By the time European markets got underway, the worst of the immediate market fears appeared to have lifted, with European bourses staging a healthy comeback. Gains on the various markets ranged from 0.5% to 1.5% by midmorning.

By 0920 GMT, the euro had rebounded from its earlier lows but was still down at $1.4133 from $1.4172 late Tuesday in New York, according to EBS. It was also down at Y133.82 from Y133.99 after an initial fall to Y132.76.

See chart at

http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/2493

The dollar rose to Y94.66 from Y94.55 and was up at CHF1.0781 compared with CHF1.0753. The pound fell to $1.6359 from $1.6442.

The euro is higher against most East European currencies, rising to HUF269.96 from HUF268.84 and to PLN4.2001 from PLN4.1876. The single currency is also up at CZK25.570 from CZK25.530.

-By Nicholas Hastings, Dow Jones Newswires

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