Daily Forex Analysis and Prediction for July 2, 2009

ya betul, Risk Management adalah yang terpenting

salam sukses ya

GainScope.com

Bagi yang tadi sudah closing posisi, sebaiknya jangan OP lagi.

Tunggu analisa besok ya !

Salam Sukses

GainScope.com

U.S. job losses unexpectedly accelerated last month on widespread declines across manufacturing, construction and professional services, injecting some doubt into hopes for an economic recovery later this year.

The unemployment rate, meanwhile, continued to creep toward double digits on a percentage basis, rising to its highest level in more than 25 years.

Nonfarm payrolls declined 467,000 in June, the U.S. Labor Department said Thursday, a considerably larger decline than the 350,000 economists in a Dow Jones Newswires survey had expected.

Though monthly job losses have tapered off from their peaks of around 700,000 at the start of the year, the economy has still lost 6.5 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007.

The unemployment rate, calculated using a survey of households as opposed to companies, increased 0.1 percentage point to 9.5%, the highest level since August 1983. Economists had expected a slightly larger rise, to 9.6%.

The labor market “is still terrible,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, adding “don’t be swayed” by the small rise in the unemployment rate.

Indeed, many Wall Street economists expect that rate to top 10% soon. Not only does the economy have to stop losing jobs before the jobless rate stabilizes, it actually has to add payrolls at a modest rate just to keep up with new entrants into the labor force.

“Unemployment rates, in my judgment, are likely to remain higher and linger longer than in recent recessions,” Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh said last month, adding that the term “jobless recovery” may become “a familiar and vexing refrain.”

The Fed last week held the target federal-funds rate for interbank lending near zero and repeated its pledge to keep rates “exceptionally low…for an extended period.” San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen affirmed that point Tuesday by saying the fed-funds rate could stay near zero for some time, a view supported by Thursday’s data.

According to Thursday’s report, when marginally attached and involuntary part-time workers are included, the rate of unemployed or underemployed workers hit 16.5% last month, up slightly from May.

The employment report is a sober reminder of the headwinds the U.S. economy faces even as other data suggest the recession may be nearing an end. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index increased in June from May and, though its level of 44.8 still signals a slight contraction in manufacturing, it is consistent with slight growth in the overall economy.

After plunging at annualized rates near 6% at the end of 2008 and early 2009, economists think gross domestic product fell only around 1% or 2% in the second quarter, setting the stage for a resumption of tepid growth starting as soon as the current quarter.

Still, a jolt of consumption-driven adrenaline seems unlikely. Average hourly earnings were flat last month at $18.53. That was up just 2.7% from one year ago, a sign that inflation isn’t a risk for the Fed. However, stagnant wages could also weigh on consumer spending, especially with gasoline prices on the rise.

According to Thursday’s report, hiring last month in manufacturing fell 136,000, bringing the total since the recession began to almost 2 million. Automobile employment accounted for 27,000 of that decline. Construction employment, meanwhile, was down 79,000.

Employment in the service sector – the main source of U.S. jobs – fell 244,000. Business and professional services companies shed 118,000 jobs, and financial-sector payrolls were down 27,000.

Retail trade cut 21,000 jobs and leisure and hospitality employment fell 18,000, reflecting weakness in consumer spending.

In a grim sign for future payroll trends, temporary employment – which economists consider a leading indicator – fell by 37,600 last month. In May, that sector had posted its best performance in many months, fueling some hope that the labor market was finding its footing.

“Until people start adding to the temporary work force, they’re not going to add to the permanent work force,” said Roy Krause, chief executive of Spherion Corp. (SFN), a temporary staffing firm.

Continuing a trend seen throughout this recession, education and health care added jobs last month. Those labor-intensive sectors, particularly health care, are shielded somewhat from trends in the overall economy.

The government shed 52,000 jobs, largely the result of layoffs of workers hired temporarily to prepare for the 2010 Census.

The average workweek was down 0.1 hour at 33 hours, a record low. A separate index of aggregate weekly hours fell 0.8 percentage point to 99.

One silver lining was a separate Labor Department report showing declines in both new and total jobless claims toward the end of June, offering “some hope that the decline in payrolls won’t be quite as large next time,” said ING Bank economist James Knightley.

And despite the big drop in manufacturing jobs, that sector may finally be finding its footing somewhat. Factory orders rose a second time in a row, up 1.2% in May, the Commerce Department said, and a key indicator of capital spending surged.

“The manufacturing sector is still in recession, although the pace of contraction has slowed dramatically, and a sustained recovery is unlikely in the near term,” Insight Economics analyst Steven Wood said.