Daily Forex Signals and Predictions for August 16, 2010

The USD bounces back on global weakness, positioning

Just a week after making new lows for the current decline, the USD has rebounded sharply against all other major currencies, though less so against the JPY. For the last several weeks, we had been suggesting that an eventual turn for the worse in economic data outside of the US would see the USD come back into demand. But where we were looking for a gradual turnaround in the data and most likely later in September, the shift came sooner and over a matter of days. A downgraded Fed assessment on the US outlook and data disappointments from all major economies (China, Japan, Australia, Eurozone) caught the market exceptionally short of USD and long others, triggering a massive rebound in the greenback. Mid-August doldrums and lower liquidity likely contributed to the rapid, one-way move. As of the end of the week, market anecdotes suggest real-money asset managers are still not on board with the USD recovery and are consequently lowering orders/offers to sell EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD and other risk currencies. That the move was primarily safe-haven in nature is evident in US data continuing to show signs of weakness (meaning the USD was not being bought on better economic news) and sharp declines in US rates as investors sought safety in US Treasuries. Gold also strengthened alongside the greenback, suggesting gold was resuming its role as a currency alternative.

The reversal this past week was not solely a USD rebound, but also a EUR sell-off, as sovereign debt concerns resurfaced (more below). The Euro finished the week lower against all major currencies as a series of events raised concerns anew over the risks of a sovereign debt default. Early in the past week, the Irish government was forced to pump more funds into troubled Irish banks, already largely under state control. Disappointing June German, French and Eurozone industrial production offset a string of more positive data and highlighted a potential slowing in the months ahead. Even better than expected 2Q GDP in Germany and the broader Eurozone (a backward looking indicator) could not spark a EUR recovery. Weaker Greek and Spanish 2Q GDP readings served to remind that slower growth exacerbates budget deficits and increases debt service burdens. Lastly, the Slovak parliament rejected participating in the Greek EU aid package, drawing a sharp rebuke from Germany and the EU, and again rekindling fears of a currency union dissolution. We think there is more downside potential for the EUR ahead, especially if under the 1.2720/50 zone, and more upside potential for the USD. But while the US slowdown now seems increasingly priced-in to markets, further signs of US weakness should eventually make the traffic more of a two-way street, but that is probably after a move down to the 1.2450/2500 area in EUR/USD.

Eurozone debt concerns resurface

While recent European data has had a somewhat positive tone (EZ 2Q GDP rose to +1.0% from the prior +0.2%) the Eurozone still faces many headwinds with the most significant coming from sovereign debt concerns. Friday’s Italian bond auction attracted bids worth only 1.27 times the amount offered with a yield of 4.36%. This was a very poor number and down from the bid-to-cover ratio of 1.74 (and a yield of 4.42%) the last time comparable bonds were offered in May. While yields were rising in the peripheral EU (Spanish 10-yrs climbed 23 bps this week to 4.27%), yields on German 10-yrs fell to record lows today around 2.37%. Weak economic data from the peripheral countries (Greece 2Q GDP fell -1.5% from the prior -0.8%, Spanish 2Q GDP at +0.2% QoQ missed expectations of +0.3% gain) raised growth concerns which drove safe haven demand into Germany’s bonds pushing down yields. A look at the widening spreads between EU periphery debt and German debt (Europe’s benchmark) shows increasing worries. The spread between Greek 10-yr yields and German equivalents rose to 810 bps, the most since early May and the yield spread between 10-yr Irish bonds and German bunds widened to 294 bps, the most since late June.

At the same time that yield spreads are widening between the core and periphery nations, sovereign debt credit default swaps (CDS), which are a measure of the risk of default, are reaching elevated levels for the peripheral-EU. Ireland’s 5-yr CDS reached 17-month highs on Thursday as it rose to 286bps and Greek CDS advanced to 825 basis points up from 782 last week. We believe that the trend in widening yield spreads between the core and periphery nations will continue as investors flee risk. This, coupled with ascending CDS, is likely to weigh on the euro in the coming weeks. The Irish bond auction to be held on Tuesday will be a critical near-term event risk. The Irish central bank may step in and buy bonds in the market, as it has been doing over the last few days, to offset any shortfall in demand. While this would technically avoid a failed auction, markets would not view it kindly and the EUR is likely to suffer further. Some key EUR/USD levels to keep an eye on to the downside are the 1.2750 pivot and retracement level and the 1.2610/20 cloud top and 50% retracement of the June-August rally. 1.2950-1.3000 should be the key pivot to the upside and although we expect this to hold as resistance a break higher could see towards 1.3200.

JPY-strength may prompt official action

Japanese officials from the BOJ Gov. to the Finance Minister, to the Prime Minister himself, spoke out against JPY strength in the past week. The JPY hit multi-year highs against the USD at 84.70/80 amid the safe haven panic mid-week, before pulling back on the intensified rhetoric. The BOJ reportedly ‘checked rates’ on Thursday in Tokyo, a move that potentially suggests that outright market intervention to weaken the JPY may be imminent. Up until recently, we thought the global politics of the situation would restrain Japan from active intervention, but sharp declines in Japanese shares highlight the risk a strong JPY poses to the Japanese recovery. JPY-strength not only hurts export-sector competitiveness and profitability, but also drives down share prices (the Nikkei hits its lowest level since July 2009 on Thursday), which undermines consumer and corporate sentiment even further, endangering the broader economic recovery. For these reasons, we think the risks of JPY strength have become too great to ignore for the MOF/BOJ, and that a break below 84.50/70 would likely trigger intervention. Market reports are of semi-official USD/JPY buying interest in the 85.10/20 area, and we would note a potential descending wedge pattern, where strength above the 86.50/60 level could trigger a sharp rebound in USD/JPY. We will also closely watch the reaction to a forecast drop in 2Q Japanese GDP (+2.3% annualized vs. prior +5.0%) due to be released Monday morning in Tokyo as a potential catalyst to JPY weakness.

Salam semuanya! Lihat indikator saya di chart GU pertama dengan indi ichimoku yang ditandai dengan melebarnya span a dan span b, lalu ada candle hammer di TF 1H dan Fibonacci dengan retrace terakhir 50.0 yang tidak tertembus. Kelihatannya bearish GU akan berakhir, atau jika tidak berakhir maka akan naik dulu.
Ini hanya teknikal, mohon untuk dianlisis kembali.

yupz……

GU break retracement 50.0. Peluang down akan berlanjut, kita lihat dulu mungkin sampai pembukaan pasar Eropa.

Numpang diskusi gan..

Ane setuju gan. GU kayaknya sempat tembus trend line gan. Kalau ntar rebound nya close di bawah trend line, keknya bakalan nyungsep ke 1.54 nih. Garis B pola EW jadi sempurna dan siap bentuk garis C yg keknya meroket lewati 1.6..

Sekedar ngeramein obrolan di warung, Gan…

Met pagi om gs….
Wah manteb ne,,pagi2 dh ksh prediksi….moga2 hari ini membawa kbruntungan bagi kita semua….
Salam profit..

BUY EU ahhh,, sopo ngerti ngecak…. hahahahaha 😀
27-35

prediksi saya, kmungkinan gj bakal short dahulu barang beberapa puluh pips, stelah tu gj bakal up ( stay open buy stelah harga terendah gj) kmungkinan gj bakal up antara pukul 13:00 WIB….. salam profit buat smuanya

ingat-ingat, ni hanya untuk pairs mata uang gbp/jpy,( jgn coba mbandingkan dgn mata uang yang lain……. 🙂

ok bro, aku buy 133.65.

buru2 bener, tapi gpp juga sih….ntar juga up 😀

GJ dah close 134.34. bung GeJe seperti yg menggerakkan chart aja. he..he..he..

salam kenal bro…….
biasanya pakai SL berapa bro? trims

biasanya 100 pips bro SLnya, tapi biasanya ngga pernah tersentuh sampai sgitu

trims bro pencerahannya, untuk hari open buy GJ tetap jam 13.00 atau nanti bro GeJe posting lagi saat open. trims

maksudnya hari ini

sapa mau ikut buy GJ

saya dah buy lagi 133.40.

seep………buy Gj

sell EU TP 1.2699
Sell GU TP 1.5543

salam profit

hikz..hikzz bung putra kemana y..?? ~_~

uh kok banyak yg sok jagoan kasih prediksi yach?? amatiran banget loe pade. om GS aja yg udah profesional ga terlalu banyak kasih prediksi. :))

Yaa sudaah Klo gitu sekarang Dari pada ribut gimana nih Nasib GBP/USD…??? Kalo naik smpai berapa…???, Kalo Turun juga sampai Berapa…??? Gimana Menurut MASTER BACOT saya akan ngiKUTAN deh.
Karena sya punya SELL GU dari hari Jum’aT TenK Master Bacot

akhhh…Brisikkk loeee bacooottt..!!!mane prediksi lu?kagak pernah prediksi juga,mendingan mereka yg mau prediksi.

loe tu yang sebenere banyak BACOT terserah donk orang mau opini apa aza, cman gaya bicara loe nggak sopan banget, ke LAUT aza decxh loe, biar dimakan ikan tengiri

Maklumi aja bro, Sepertinya si Bacot tidak pernah duduk di bangku sekolah. Maka bicaranya seperti orang alas. Mungkin keseringan lose, sehingga jadi sentimentil begitu. Jika dia sukses di dunia forex, mungkin akan menularkan aura positif bukan main umpat kayak begitu. Semoga cepat sadar aja bro, sebelum disadarkan ama situasi. Yang merasa waras, tolong pengertiannya untuk mengalah.

_Luck

tenang bro bulan puasa,,, dimakan ikan tengiri ama ikan pesut :))

Eu mencoba Untuk Up Ke level 1.2820 break diatas itu akan mencoba ke level 1.29xx. Tetapi jika Break di bawah 1.2700 maka selanjutnya akan ke 1.24xx. HAri ini TF 4h mengindikasikan koreksi Up.

Untuk hari ini keep Buy dengan entry point di ksaran 1.2730.

_Luck

saya trap sell euro di 1.2900-1.3000..euro bisa ke sekitar 1.2000..ini long term..

kelihatannya nih..e/u akan up dl, terutama kemungkinan besok..ada news jerman zew..

bagi yg sedang hold up gu, hati-hati di 1556
bagi yg sedang hold up eu, hati-hati di 1280

para master, saya belum pernah menggunakan trailing stop. apa fungsinya dan bagaimana utk menggunakannya? tolong expain yea.tq. 🙂

kalau utk GU gimana bung joe the great..mohon pencerahannya..thanks

Setelah menembus 1.5550, low hari ini 1.5535. GU tf 4h mengindikasikan Koreksi Up ke level 1.5650-15680 jika tembus diatas 1.57xx maka bullis berlanjut. Klu untuk Buy saat ini dah tanggung bro,Masalahnya TF dailynya belum konfirmasi. Untuk trending Up atau down harus ada Pundamental signifikan yang mendukung bro. Untuk lebih amannya tunggu konformasi dlo.

Secara Teknikal pandangan rata2 setiap trader sama bro,Beda adalah pada titik mana dia entry market dengan target yang jelas.

thanks bung joe..

thanks bung joe

G/U skr naik gk nih?

GJnya turun bro.

Om GS, mau tanya nih…w dari smartphone Motorola Q9H download software mt4 (.exe) dan install langsung..tapi kq ngak bisa ya? W mau live langsung di smartphone…bisa tolong dibantu?
W
W

mt4 dapat dioperasikan di smartphone yang berbasis windows mobile. Pastikan smartphones yang anda gunakan berbasis windows mobile.

Atau anda dapat langsung menghubungi toko penjual hp tersebut untuk membantu anda mengoperasikan.

Motorola Q9H itu sudah pake window versi 6. Saya pakai Motorola Q CDMA dgn WM versi 5. Bisa kok Bro… Pilih download yg untuk smartphone, jangan yg MT4 untuk PDA. Ada yg MT4.EXE dan MT4.CAB. Cara downloadnya beda, dari PC tranfer ke HP atau langsung ke HP. Silahkan baca detailnya di petunjuknya…

Target gak muluk-muluk… zakat dan sedekah serta sedikit bekal buat lebaran… dapet gak yah….

Insyaallah dapet. terawehan dulu ah.hehehe…..

siap2 pasang sellstop dan buystop untuk menjaring berita USD, pasang di GU, UJ dan EU sellstop dan buystop 1-3 menit sblm berita muncul,MM ( SL 10 pips TP 10 pips), berita muncul jam 20.00 wib, 80% aman

6 kali berturut-turut… GS Loss…. but it’s ok…. All just predictions….

Waduh, Belajar lagi baca sinyal bro, mestinya tadi pagi pas open market awasi gerakan dlo, Gap diatas kira2 Up sampe 1.2770 trus down ke 1.2735. Setelah itu baru Up sampe sekarang. Sinyal tuh ancer2, Up nya dah lebih 100 pips. siapapun tidak ada yang bisa prediksi detail banget. Jika misal dalam 1 hari itu gerakan 100 pips, masak ambil 20 pips aja gak dapat. Range GS dah benar. Tinggal analisa kita aja mau ambil posisi dimana. Saran gwea ikuti salah satu aja, Buy atau sell. Jangan dua2nya. Pilih yang sesuai Trend. Tentukan dulu style anda dalam bertrading.

_Luck

ok.. trima kasih advisenya bro…

betul bung GS prediksinya mantap..aku profit GU 40 EU 40 ambil buy setelah kedua pair tsb turun sesuai prediksi bung GS tidak brnar kalu 6x loss

sel uc tp 50 sl 500 semoga profit